Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates (updated for 1.40)

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krmarci
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Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates (updated for 1.40)

#1 Post by krmarci » 29 May 2019 06:17

UPDATED FOR 1.41
Earlier predictions: 1.40 ⭐.....1.38 ❌.....1.37 ✔️.....1.36 ❌.....1.35 ✔️


I have been playing ETS2 since version 1.11, and noticed that the time between updates has been getting longer (on average) since then.
So, I made a spreadsheet with all the release dates of the official versions (not the open betas!), and it appears that there is a correlation (currently r=0.72) between the version number and the time between that version and the one before it. I set up a best fit linear equation t(v). This means that now, we can calculate the date of any update, past, present or future (approximately).
Let's assume that the deviation of actual update length values from the linear approximation is normally distributed (μ = t(v), σ = 30.93). With this assumption, we can calculate that the next update, 1.41 will be released, with ca. 68% probability, between 15 July and 15 September 2021, most likely on 15 August 2021.

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Last edited by krmarci on 24 Mar 2021 10:11, edited 17 times in total.

FlyingPigeon
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Re: Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates

#2 Post by FlyingPigeon » 29 May 2019 07:57

i predigt its between tommorrow and new years eve...
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Mohegan13
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Re: Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates

#3 Post by Mohegan13 » 29 May 2019 08:06

I predict somewhere between the 13th and 29th of June, because we were already told late Spring and that would late Spring. :P
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Andrewplayer
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Re: Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates

#4 Post by Andrewplayer » 29 May 2019 08:16

Dear SCS. I am super-excited for this 1.35 patch release. I know you want the patch ready without bugs, which is good. But it was so many announcements, its hard to wait for us. Hope you understand and you will be more and more specific about the realease date. Have a nice day!

FlyingPigeon
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Re: Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates

#5 Post by FlyingPigeon » 29 May 2019 08:18

i am sure that SCS now magically will work twice the speed and provide you with a personal phonecall to tell you the exact date, time of the release :roll:
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xeviax
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Re: Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates

#6 Post by xeviax » 29 May 2019 08:20

My best guess, ETS2 1.35 will be released between 13th to 20th June. But let's see.
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Andrewplayer
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Re: Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates

#7 Post by Andrewplayer » 29 May 2019 08:23

Its not necesary. Just keep releasing all news here.
Bocaj wrote:
29 May 2019 08:18
i am sure that SCS now magically will work twice the speed and provide you with a personal phonecall to tell you the exact date, time of the release :roll:

FlyingPigeon
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Re: Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates

#8 Post by FlyingPigeon » 29 May 2019 08:25

i was joking.. because if SCS had the release date dont you think they already had given it to us? because i doubt they will wait for you to ask for it.
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IonutL
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Re: Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates

#9 Post by IonutL » 29 May 2019 08:26

If players can't curb their enthusiasm, then SCS should be allowed some leeway for when they miss a deadline, no?
But i assure you that it not gonna happen like that, there will be a lot of people who would complain and make a fuss about the missed deadline and who will create a bad publicity of something that can happen to every project and work out there.

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Re: Predicting the release dates of ETS2 updates

#10 Post by daniel_bel » 29 May 2019 14:41

I don't care, I will wait for the first update/corrections after the initial release...
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