Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

Which states should be next

Kansas 2022
Nebraska 2022
Oklahoma 2022
Montana 2022
South Dakota 2022
Louisiana 2022
Arkansas 2022
Total votes: 370

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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4211 Post by oldmanclippy » 05 Oct 2020 20:43

I've been thinking about the order that states should come in, and I think so much depends on both their release strategy and how quickly the new people brought in to work on Texas will get up to speed. I agree with @flight50 that they should a) stick to 2 releases per year and just release larger maps as the team sizes increase and b) follow a stair-step pattern to maintain diversity of locations from release to release. I also value having a semi-compact map, which is challenging with the stair-step model of releases but I tried to maintain compactness as much as I could. Here's my idea for how it could go (I personally would prefer Montana before Texas but I really think Texas will come first).

This is probably the best case scenario for how fast it could come. I think it is more likely that they will finish the lower 48 in 2030-2032, but it really depends on how dense they choose to make the road network east of the Mississippi, as well as how their development tools and the engine evolve to handle larger cities, interchanges, etc that the east coast will demand.

I think that once Texas (especially East Texas) releases we will have a better idea of the sort of work load we can expect from them going forward, so until then this is all pure conjecture as to what they will be able to handle.

So this is really just for fun and maybe a glimpse as to what the future could hold, rather than a serious academic study into the possibilities.

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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4212 Post by leo.arevalo12ss » 05 Oct 2020 20:54

I agree but I don't think that Texas would be completed in 2021 along with Wyoming because Texas is larger than germany and it would take about a year to complete Texas
Take it with a grain of salt nothing is 100% sure

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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4213 Post by parasaurolophus67 » 05 Oct 2020 21:00

I wouldn't rule out texas for 2021 yet. Some of the SCS staff were working on it little at the time so it wouldn't be too hard when they get to it.

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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4214 Post by leo.arevalo12ss » 05 Oct 2020 21:11

I think if they have been secretly working on Texas then they would probably announce it on the stream before years ended but they wouldn't give out an exact date until later on but that could be how it goes if it comes for 2021
Take it with a grain of salt nothing is 100% sure

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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4215 Post by plykkegaard » 05 Oct 2020 21:21

Completed in '29 you say
Damn, I'll turn 70 in the early spring of '29
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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4216 Post by Bedavd » 05 Oct 2020 21:38

I think it was explicitly mentioned last year that they had someone doing preliminary work on Texas, and then more implicitly recently on the Idaho stream that they are working on the big scary one, and a smaller one. Assuming it comes out around November that'll be a good 2 years of active work, with maybe 1 - 1.5 years of full fledged work. I could see that being enough to knock out a pretty good Texas, depending.
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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4217 Post by flight50 » 05 Oct 2020 22:57

@oldmanclippy very good map. I could work with that. Its lines up with what we have been saying here in this thread dating back to 2018 on page 73. Even back then, we all made guesses incorporating more map teams in the future. I've been voicing stair step for the longest. It gets Pavel to Florida like he wants and it fills in the map much better without leaving to many gaps.

@leo.arevalo12ss what @Bedavd just said is what I was explaining. That is why Texas is possible for 2021. Although I'd rather see Wyoming and Montana, its very possible Texas can swap with Montana for 2021. I'll run thru it the timeline again.

2019 - For the Washington release, Pavel was on a stream. In that stream he flat out said that he had (1) person doing preliminary work on Texas for the past 6 months. That means Jan/Feb 2019. Also in 2019, Pavel announced that they already started a 3rd map team even though it was just confirmed that a 2nd map team was official. Although small, they started a 3rd team already. Pavel know that in order to increase production, ATS needs more people. We can't think USA here. If they want to map North America, they can't keep it one map team. I've always said they need a minimum of 3 map team. But even that won't be enough if they want to finish North America in 10-15 years.

2020 - Jan/Feb. A full year of working on creating a 3rd map team. Great chance that a 3rd map team has more people and is quote..unquote assembled. No confirmation but I'd imagine a whole year they grew. It also makes 1 full year that Texas has work done. Whether 2020 started off with still just that one person or a small map team is anyone's guess. For Idaho's release, SCS did say they continued to hire even with the pandemic. To me (not confirmed) but I'd like to think from Jan/Feb 2019 to Summer 2020......that 3rd map team is in place and all trained up. It takes about 6 months to train mappers. Some can learn quicker, others take longer. But either way its not confirmed.

So now it is going into Fall 2020. I expect Wyoming to get announced on the Xmas stream and early next year (like Colorado for 2020), I think that 2nd map gets hinted come Spring. That is when it goes on the wishlist on Steam. Whether its Texas or Montana, we will have to wait until Spring 2021. But Texas has work for more than 1.5 years now. Come Jan/Feb 2021 it will be 2 full years. Numbers on Texas are unknown but in 2019 on that Summer stream, Pavel said he wanted about 25 or so people on Texas. I don't remember the exact number without re-watching the stream but I want to say said 20-25 or he said 25-30. Somewhere in there. In order to put that many on Texas, we still need about 10-12 more people to do another state along with Texas. Texas demands at the least 2 full map teams. Assuming a map team is about 10-12 people. Wyoming is perfect for (1) full map team to knock out. Just like any other dlc we have gotten. Its large and has a good road layout but its not busy. Its as big as Colorado but different terrain and city density. So instead of just getting one state for 2021, Wyoming works well to knock out for Summer 2021. It boxes up the map and can be mapped for Summer 2021 easily imo. We'll see.

Now lets fast forward to Winter 2021. Oct/Nov if this is Texas release. From the time Pavel said Texas started preliminary (Jan/Feb 2019) all the way to Oct/Nov, that is 33-35 months of Texas getting work. Once I really started thinking about it, that is plenty of time for Texas to come. It really all depends on when Texas goes/went full production and how many are on it. So yes, technically Texas can be on the menu for Winter 2021 whether we like it or not. Texas is a business move and would bring in more money than Wyoming or Montana. Maybe even combined. Texas offers too much so that is why its a business move and why I can see SCS going ahead to push Texas ahead of Montana. Sure a boxed map would be better but even if Montana came first, Texas still sticks out like a sore thumb. But Texas is large enough to create little to now issues getting back to adjacent maps. So imo, Texas can come at any point because its size, creates so much once you get insides its borders.

If Texas comes before Montana or if Montana comes before Texas, they'd both only be 6 months apart anyways. No way Texas goes to Winter 2022. That is 4 years. Worst case Texas Summer 2022 and that would be 3.5 years of development. So no matter what, we'd more than likely get Montana and Texas by Summer 2022. Montana might look huge, but 2/3rds of the state is small towns/cities and Great Plains..............lots of Great plains. Wide open prairies of nothing. Easy mapping for an experience map team. SCS will map that like a boss. I think Oklahoma has a real good shot at the Winter 2022 map. So between Wyoming, Texas, Montana and Oklahoma, with 3+ unofficial map teams in place, we could indeed have all that by the time 2023 starts. Of course this is all just my opinion and speculation, but everything is derived from what Pavel wants to do and that is to get to Florida asap. That was the his answer to a question he was asked long ago in "what does he want for ATS". But he also does not want to give us another hockey stick map. He acknowledges that the majority of the community does not want a repeat so a stair step map is ideal.

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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4218 Post by angrybirdseller » 06 Oct 2020 01:33

Just hope they have technology to build the complex interchanges faster as they more numerous once you get to midwest. SCS will push to Florida soon as possible. I think it's possible if they bee-line along the I-10 corridor with Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. They could have two super teams one team build Mississippi and Alabama in 2024 along with second team work on Georgia and Florida in the 2nd half of 2024 as well. Think the USA will be completed in 2028 and 2032 at the current rate. Think more people working on the map itself complete larger chunks as time goes on.

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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4219 Post by harishw8r » 06 Oct 2020 04:22

oldmanclippy wrote:
05 Oct 2020 20:43
So this is really just for fun and maybe a glimpse as to what the future could hold, rather than a serious academic study into the possibilities.
Amazing map and sounds absolutely logical to me. But I would prefer Georgia and Florida before the Dakotas. That would result in a weirdly shaped map, but it shouldn't matter since we already had one before Utah.

Imho, atleast after Oklahoma and Montana, I would like to see only one release per year, with multiple states. We should be having a good amount of manpower after Texas, so all map designers could be clubbed together.

My exact wish is this:
2022 Summer: Montana
2022 Winter: Oklahoma and Kansas
2023: The remaining Great Plain States, Nebraska and Dakotas (single DLC)
2024: Bit over ambitious, but all the way upto Florida, again in a single DLC.
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Re: Poll: Choose (2) States you would like to see next

#4220 Post by Vinnie Terranova » 06 Oct 2020 07:14

@oldmanclippy If TX is in 2021 then I don't think OK will be the only state in 2022. I think at least one more state is possible in 2022. That could mean that some release dates can be earlier, and that could mean that 2024 could be possible for FL.

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